Republicans hold the senate.
A couple of things convinced me that the Dems wouldn't sweep both houses. First, Karl Rove's chilling exchange with Robert Seigel on all things considered:
SIEGEL: We are in the home stretch though and many would consider you on the optimistic end of realism about...link
ROVE: Not that you would exhibit a bias, you just making a comment.
SIEGEL: I'm looking at all the same polls that you are looking at.
ROVE: No, you are not. I'm looking at 68 polls a week for candidates for the US House and US Senate, and Governor and you may be looking at 4-5 public polls a week that talk attitudes nationally.
SIEGEL: I don't want to have you to call races...
ROVE: I'm looking at all of these Robert and adding them up. I add up to a Republican Senate and Republican House. You may end up with a different math but you are entitled to your math and I'm entitled to THE math.
The guy indicates (and I believe him) that he has information that we don't have access to, that makes the polls we do have access to look like a joke. He's evil, but he's powerful.
Second thing that changed my mind...the Iowa Electronic Markets. They sell futures on political elections, and predict better than anyone else in the world. Here're their quotes as of now:
Market Quotes: Senate06
2006 Senate Control Market.
Quotes current as of 14:30:00 CST, Tuesday, November 07, 2006.
Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average
RS.gain06 0.004 0.014 0.004 0.002 0.013 0.004
RS.hold06 0.690 0.705 0.690 0.670 0.745 0.695
RS.lose06 0.304 0.329 0.307 0.290 0.330 0.312
What that means: the market says there's a 69% chance republicans hold the senate. This is determined by the price traders are willing to pay for each of the stated outcomes.
Well, taking the House isn't so bad.
No comments:
Post a Comment